Presidential Polls 2012

Presidential Polls - What They Are And How They Work

The media seems to be full of reporting on electoral and presidential points, each stating that one candidate is behind, one is ahead, one is leading closely behind the first, but they all seem to say different things. According to the 24-hour news networks there are no leading candidates, and polls are completely worthless. After all, how can they show factual information if none of it matches? To understand what causes this, you first have to understand what presidential polls are, and what they are used for.

Political polls are surveys meant to convey the vote of popular opinion, prior to an election. Media sources use these results to predict who is likely to win the seat of Presidency, and they continue citing points until the actual vote counts begin on Election Day. There is quite a bit of debate on whether or not these presidential polls are actually effective, or whether or not they only work on swaying a small part of the population towards a certain candidate.

Quite a bit of the controversy comes from the fact that it is becoming more and more difficult to get an accurate portrayal of the population. The main method of polling the country is by telephone. Representatives for a polling company will call the homes of Americans and ask them if they plan on voting, and who they plan on voting for. But with an increasing cell phone industry, as well as the inability to know if someone is really going to follow through with the vote, creates a wide variation in polls, with either an over-or under-estimation creating conflicting results.

This isn't to say that presidential polls are completely worthless. Certainly, the results that come closer to voting day tend to be much more accurate then those at the beginning. Often it gives enough time to allow polling organizations enough time to widen their survey, catching more of the population after they have had time to adjust their decision to the policies and opinions of the chosen candidate. It creates an - albeit flowing - baseline in which to predict results.

There is a good rule of thumb to follow by as a laymen, when considering whether or not to trust these presidential polls. That rule is to allow about a ten point discrepancy in either direction for each candidate. This covers the usual difference that you will see between polling stations. From there, add up the number of stations that are reporting one candidate over the other, and with that ten points in mind, assume that the candidate that still maintains the highest predictions and points is likely the one leading.

It is still guesswork, but an education estimation is close to what the polling organizations themselves so in presidential polls, so you are probably not going to be far off the mark. However, in the end it is preferable to go by president, word of mouth, and general knowledge about a candidate, including their public support prior to the election. Knowledge and research will always win out about speculation and prediction. In any case, forget the presidential polls, and get out to the booths to cast your own votes. Make your voice heard, and create a better America for tomorrow.